Sharing Power. Prospects for a U.S. Concert-Balance Strategy.

摘要

The 'Pax Americana' and the grand strategy of hegemony (or 'Primacy') that underpins it may be becoming unsustainable. Particularly in the wake of exhausting wars, the Global Financial Crisis, and the shift of wealth from West to East, it may no longer be possible or prudent for the United States to act as the unipolar sheriff or guardian of a world order. But how viable are the alternatives, and what difficulties will these alternatives entail in their design and execution. This analysis offers a sympathetic but critical analysis of alternative U.S. National Security Strategies of 'retrenchment' that critics of American diplomacy offer. In these strategies, the United States would anticipate the coming of a more multipolar world and organize its behavior around the dual principles of 'concert' and 'balance,' seeking a collaborative relationship with other great powers, while being prepared to counterbalance any hostile aggressor that threatens world order. The proponents of such strategies argue that by scaling back its global military presence and its commitments, the United States can trade prestige for security, shift burdens, and attain a more free hand. To support this theory, they often look to the 19th-century concert of Europe as a model of a successful security regime and to general theories about the natural balancing behavior of states. This monograph examines this precedent and measures its usefulness for contemporary statecraft to identify how great power concerts are sustained and how they break down. The project also applies competing theories to how states might behave if world politics are in transition: Will they balance, bandwagon, or hedge. This demonstrates the multiple possible futures that could shape and be shaped by a new strategy. A new strategy based on an acceptance of multipolarity and the limits of power is prudent. But a Concert-Balance strategy will still need to deal with several potential dilemmas.