Intervention in the Balkans: the Unified Commander's Perspective

摘要

The crisis in the Balkans is examined from the perspective of the unifiedcommander. Specifically, it analyzes three forms of intervention the unified commander could recommend to the National Command Authority, and the likelihood of each in achieving the national strategic objectives. This crisis represents the most likely form of conflict in the future. As the first serious test of US foreign policy in a truly multipolar world, it has the potential to define the boundaries and character of US foreign policy and with it, the role of the military in future regional conflicts of this kind. The forms of intervention analyzed include: nonmilitary intervention (military in supporting role only), limited military intervention and overwhelming force. The results of the analysis indicate that the national strategic objectives outlined for the crisis in the former Yugoslavia cannot be achieved by the use of military force. Furthermore, the most effective form of intervention is nonmilitary in nature, however this would demand compromises in the national strategic objectives in order to be a suitable recommendation of the unified commander. The conclusion is that the unified commander should recommend a nonmilitary form of intervention (with military in supporting role only) recognizing its shortfalls, as the only option with enduring qualities and not in and of itself destabilizing to the region.