Global shale oil production 'to boost UK GDP by ￡50bn'

摘要

The global impact of shale oil could revolutionise the world's energy markets over the next couple of decades, resulting in significantly lower oil prices than would otherwise be the case and a consequent increase of around ￡500-￡800 in GDP per person in the UK (at today's GDP values), according to new analysis from PwC. The report, Shale oil - The next energy revolution, examines scenarios that consider the potential impact of future growth in shale oil production on global oil prices and assesses how these changes could impact the wider economy and the oil and gas industry over the period to 2035. The findings suggest that shale oil production has the potential to spread gradually from its current US base, increasing to almost 12% of the world's total oil supply by 2035. Given the relative insensitivity of oil demand to price changes, PwC estimates that real oil price falls of around 25-40% could be needed by 2035 to increase demand sufficiently to absorb this additional supply, depending also on how OPEC responds.