US shale stays centre stage

摘要

US shale oil and gas will take centre stage once again in the changing long-term energy trends highlighted in the 2016 edition of BP’s 2016 Energy Outlook. BP has “been repeatedly surprised by the strength of US tight oil”. Its 2013 projection for US shale oil in 2030 was overtaken as soon as 2014. Low prices are expected to bring just “a brief retrenchment”, with growth resuming, albeit at a slowing rate, before output plateaus in the 2030s at almost 8mn b/d, double the current level and equivalent to nearly 40pc of US production. Already-achieved productivity gains mean that once the market stabilises and prices firm, the potentially economically recoverable resource base from US shale will be bigger than previously anticipated, BP chief economist Spencer Dale says. But shale oil will still account for less than 10pc of global liquids output in 2035, at 10mn b/d.