The Iberian Species of Scilia (Subfamily Scilloideae, Family Asparagaceae) Under Climatic Change Scenarios in Southwestern Europe

摘要

Six different morphotypes for the Scilla species in western Europe have been distinguished based on leaf width, length of the basal bract, number of flowers per inflorescence, and length of bulbs: (1) S. peruviana; (2) S. hyacinthoides; (3) S. lilio-hyacinthus; (4) S. ramburei + S. beirana; (5) S. verna + S. paui + S. odorata + S. merinoi + S. monophyllos; and (6) S. obtusifolia + S. numidica + S. autumnalis. Two biogeographic trends have been circumscribed in terms of monthly precipitation averages (the most discriminating parameter). One trend, characterized by lower annual regimes of precipitation and distributions around the Mediterranean basin, is represented by S. peruviana, S. hyacinthoides, S. obtusifolia, and S. numidica. The second trend, associated with higher average precipitation along the extreme western coast of Europe, is represented by the S. verna group and S. lilio-hyacinthus. Scilla autumnalis exhibits an intermediate environmental behaviour. Future climate change scenarios point towards an increase in the potential habitat area of species distributed along the Mediterranean basin (S. peruviana, S. hyacinthoides, S. obtusifolia, S. numidica, and S. autumnalis) and a decrease in the potential habitat area for the western-most likely morphotypes (S. ramburei, S. verna, S. monophyllos, and S. lilio-hyacinthus)