There's been increasing discussion of recession as second- quarter economic reports were even weaker than first-quarter numbers. Federal Reserve Chair" Alan Greenspan has commented that the likelihood of a recession is now greater than at the beginning of the year. The home-building market has stalled, consumers are pulling back and manufecturers' orders are falling. Is our economic future full of gloom and doom? Is the next recession around the corner? We don't believe so. Even though second-quarter 1995 GDP was down from the 2.7 percent annualized rate of the January-March period, ii- is likely that there is enough underlying strength in the economy-and momentum from past business investments-to keep GDP growth safely above the water's surface in the last half of the year. A "soft landing" with slower, but sustained, low-inflation economic growth is expected, which shouldn't severely erode corporate profits.
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