Economics OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH MORE OF THE SAME

摘要

SOMETIMES THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, the more they stay the same. Since the beginning of the construction downturn in 2008, economists have looked for signals that would mark the beginning of a non-residential construction turnaround.Historically, the signal that non-residential construction was about to gain momentum has been an upturn in housing starts. But the argument that the non-residential market needed to wait for a rebound in the housing market was largely downplayed in this recession. The conditions that triggered the housing downturn seemed to preempt a near-term housing rebound. The combination of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, the tightening of lending standards, a glut of foreclosed homes on the market and a precipitous drop in housing values led industry observers in 2009 to write off a housing rebound anytime in the foreseeable future.