Soil Cleanup Goal for Dioxin Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques

摘要

State regulators in Florida recently approved a first-of-its-kind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for determining an alternative residential Soil Cleanup Target Level (SCTL) for dioxin (32ng/kg TEQ). The default residential SCTL (7ng/kg TEQ) is based on a single, deterministic calculation with numerous conservative assumptions, resulting in an overly conservative value far beyond the regulatory mandate (i.e., 10(-6) increase in cancer risk). Conversely, this PRA used a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate risk for all members of a large population using a combination of scientific data and professional judgment, with final details developed during negotiations with regulators. The simulation parameters were defined probabilistically and reflect the ranges of values for the following exposure variables: body weight, exposure duration, exposure frequency, fraction from contaminated source, soil ingestion rate, and relative bioavailability. Other variable and uncertain parameters were treated deterministically per direction from the regulators. The state also required that a pre-supposed high-risk subpopulation be analyzed separate from the full receptor population. Despite the conservativeness of the alternative SCTL, this PRA represents a significant step toward more realistic estimates of human health risks caused by environmental contaminant exposure.