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Vote splitting, reelection and electoral control: Towards a unified model

机译:投票拆分,改选和选举控制:建立统一模型

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This article presents a dynamic game theoretic model of voting in the presence of asymmetric information about a relevant parameter of the economy, the state of the world. Voters may use both vote splitting and reelection as mechanisms of electoral control. In a perfect Bayesian equilibrium, voters will reelect an Executive incumbent if a minimum level of social outcome, n~*, is attained. The main findings are that voters tend to be more demanding, requiring a higher value for n~*, if they expect the true state of the world to be favorable, and less demanding if they believe the state of the world is unfavorable. Moreover, vote splitting will be chosen if a favorable state is expected, whereas if an unfavorable state is more likely, voters reduce pressure over the incumbent by choosing a unified government.
机译:本文提出了一种动态博弈理论模型,该模型在存在关于经济相关参数,世界状况的不对称信息的情况下进行投票。选民可以将选票分裂和连任作为选举控制机制。在一个完美的贝叶斯均衡中,如果达到社会结果的最低水平n〜*,选民将重新选举执行任职者。主要发现是,如果选民期望世界的真实状况是有利的,他们往往要求更高,要求n〜*更高,而如果他们认为世界的状况不利,则要求更低。此外,如果期望有一个有利的国家,将选择表决分裂,而如果更可能有一个不利的国家,选民则通过选择一个统一的政府来减轻对现任议员的压力。

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