Scenario analysis of mine water inrush hazard using Bayesian networks

摘要

Mine water inrushes involve in many unidentified or new risk factors due to the complex hydrogeological features arising with the increasing mining depth. This creates a higher level of complexity for disaster preparedness and leads to great difficulty in evaluating the hazard evolution and performing disaster response. This paper presented a framework using the Scenario Analysis methodology combined with the Bayesian networks for evaluating the probability of the occurrence of mine water inrush accident. Based on cases study of typical mine water inrush accidents and expert judgment, twelve scenario elements of four types for representing mine water inrush evolution were proposed and classified with different states. On the basis of the twelve classified scenario elements, the Bayesian network of mine water inrush was constructed. Through setting up different state combinations of the scenario elements, various probabilities of four mine water inrush scenarios including typical ones and catastrophically serious ones were calculated and analyzed. The proposed framework for evaluating the probabilities of the occurrence of mine water inrushes could be helpful to establish a "Scenario-Response" based disaster response strategy for mine water inrushes. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.