The shoulder season predictably weakens crude markets while refiners pause to overhaul equipment and prep for changing seasonal product patterns. But this year was a little more drastic, coming as a new swath of crude oil hit the market. Purchasing managers were in no rush to line up fourth-quarter deliveries, as they could afford to shop around a little longer while the crude stacked up and prices sagged. Also in play were refineries finally pausing for deep turnarounds, delayed from 2015 when profit margins between crude and refined products were much fatter.
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