Experts Say GDP Slated to Grow By 4.9% in the Year to March

摘要

Some statistics put out early February; hint that GDP is likely to grow by 4.9% in the year to March, marginally higher than the 4.5% in the previous fiscal. "The first episode of two consecutive years of sub-5% growth since the mid-80s is sure to prompt calls from industry for cuts in interest rates. But industry may have to brace itself for a shock. Instead of rates coming down, they may move higher during 2014 and possibly beyond, as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) moves to implement parts of the Urjit Patel committee report, according to government officials familiar with RBI's thinking", says an analyst. The possible hike in rates is part of a radical change in monetary policy, the core of which is a shift to inflation-targeting, according to government officials who spoke to the press on the issue. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan may seek to build a political consensus for the other parts of the report — notably the proposed setting up of a monetary policy committee to set interest rates without any overt government influence — after a new government is in place after May 2014, said the officials.