Contribution of external forcing to summer precipitation trends over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Southwest China

摘要

In the past 60 years, the global climate has undergone both rapid warming and a brief warming hiatus, while regional precipitation patterns in China have also experienced diverse and complex changes. Specifically, the factors behind the opposing trends in summer precipitation between two adjacent regions -Southwest China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau -are particularly intricate. After evaluating the historical runs from CMIP6 models, the authors assessed the contributions of various external forcing factors that simulated the summer precipitation trends observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Southwest China from 1961 to 2014. The findings show that, compared to other forcing factors, greenhouse gases had a significant impact on the increase in summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while aerosols played an important role in the decrease in summer precipitation in Southwest China.