GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION

摘要

1. In the absence of adverse events, growth in advanced economies should strengthen gradually after the middle of 2013 and through 2014, helped by on-going support from accommodative monetary policies, improving financial market conditions and a gradual restoration of confidence. 2. The upturn continues to diverge across countries, with the United States likely to grow faster than other large OECD economies. Euro area growth remains constrained by the lingering effects of the euro area crisis, the on-going drag from fiscal consolidation and weaknesses in credit markets. Various policy influences seem likely to result in an irregular growth pattern in Japan. Within an overall pattern of only modest and gradual acceleration, growth outcomes in emerging market economies are also diverging, with China in the lead and growth in others restrained by structural factors, with stagflationaiy tendencies in some.