General assessment of the macroeconomic situation

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis without precedent in living memory, and continues to result in a widespread loss of life and severe human suffering. To contain the spread of the virus and save lives, most governments throughout the world imposed stringent containment measures. Activity in many sectors was shut down completely and travel and mobility curtailed. These necessary measures have succeeded in slowing the spread of infections and reducing the death toll, but have resulted in large short-term economic disruption and job losses, compounded by falling confidence and tighter financial conditions. The global economy is now experiencing the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, with GDP declines of more than 20% in many countries during shutdowns and a surge in unemployment.The economic outlook is exceptionally uncertain. With the easing of the health emergency, confinement measures are being scaled back gradually. The restarting of activities automatically adds to output, even though some containment measures, such as the closure of many international borders, will remain for some time. The recovery is likely to be hesitant, and could be interrupted by another coronavirus outbreak if targeted containment measures, notably test, track and trace (TTT) programmes, are not put in place or prove ineffective. Reflecting the unusual degree of uncertainty, this Economic Outlook presents two equally likely scenarios for each country and economy - one scenario in which a second outbreak occurs in all economies towards the end of this year (Table 1.1, Panel A) and an alternative scenario where the second outbreak is avoided (Table 1.1, Panel B). In the "double-hit" scenario, global GDP is projected to decline by 7.6% this year and remain well short of its pre-crisis level at the end of 2021; in the "single-hit" scenario, world GDP is projected to decline by 6% this year, but will have almost regained the pre-crisis level at the end of 2021. Even so, in many advanced economis, the equivalent of five years or more of per capita real income growth could be lost by 2021.Governments and monetary authorities reacted remarkably quickly to the crisis, reducing the spread of the virus and preventing an even larger economic and financial collapse. Emergency measures expanded hospital and other healthcare capacities, helped to preserve the incomes of workers and companies despite the shutdown, and guaranteed private debt on a large scale in some countries. Monetary policy has been eased, with interest rates cut, enhanced asset purchase programmes and targeted interventions in financial market segments under extreme stress. Financial policy has also been relaxed to support credit provision by financial institutions. As a result, policymakers now face exceptional challenges: government budget deficits are elevated and public debt is set to rise to exceptionally high levels in many countries, interest rates have been reduced to zero or below, and central bank balance sheets have expanded dramatically.