GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION

摘要

The global economy is continuing to recover, but progress has become more hesitant. Output and trade growth have softened since the early part of the year, as temporary growth drivers, including the boost from fiscal support measures, have faded and not yet been fully replaced by self-sustaining growth dynamics. With monetary policies remaining accommodative even as fiscal consolidation becomes widespread, the present soft patch in output growth is not projected to persist for long. Even so, in the OECD economies at least, near-term growth appears unlikely to gain the momentum seen in earlier cyclical upturns. With emerging economies also growing at a slightly lower, and more sustainable, pace than earlier in the recovery, global output growth is expected to be around 4% per cent in 2011 and 4% per cent in 2012 (Table 1.1). On this basis, OECD unemployment would decline moderately, to around 7 1/4 per cent by the end of 2012, compared with the pre-crisis trough of just over 5 1/2 per cent. Inflation hould stabilise gradually at a low rate. Outside the OECD area, domestic demand is expected to be strong, with spare capacity diminishing and policy normalisation continuing.