GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION

摘要

Global growth is projected to strengthen in the course of 2015 and 2016, but will remain modest relative to the pre-crisis period and its global distribution will change from that in recent years. The acceleration is underpinned by very supportive monetary conditions, a slower pace of fiscal consolidation, financial repair and lower oil prices. Investment, a crucial component to the outlook, has yet to take off. The appreciation of the US dollar against most currencies has led to a significant realignment in exchange rates since mid-2014. The ensuing relative price effects are shifting global demand more toward Europe, Japan and some emerging market economies (EMEs). Growth in EMEs is slowing due to specific factors in China, Brazil and Russia and it could continue to be weak in the absence of structural reforms to undo bottlenecks. Ordinary risks to the recovery path are broadly balanced around the central projection but a few extraordinary negative event risks are not taken into account and could shift the global growth path substantially. The projected pick-up in investment could remain elusive, but on the other hand, investment could respond more strongly than anticipated to an upturn in spending, reduced uncertainties and recent structural reforms, particularly in the light of low financing costs, as discussed in Chapter 3. Similarly, compensation could accelerate more than anticipated given the continued improvements of labour market conditions in most large OECD areas, which would support more consumption growth than projected. However, similar expectations have failed to materialise in the past, and this pattern could continue. Sustained quantitative easing in the euro area and Japan may prove less effective at stimulating demand than assumed. Weakness in the first quarter in the United States and in many EMEs may signal more underlying weakness than embedded in the projections. And oil price changes could either reduce some of the recent real income gains that are helping to boost global demand, or add to them. The extraordinary risks include geopolitical upheavals and severe financial instability brought about by a disorderly exit from the zero interest rate policy in the United States, failure to reach a satisfactory agreement between Greece and its creditors, and a hard landing in China. Avoiding these risks and moving the global economy to a higher and more stable growth path require mutually reinforcing monetary, fiscal and structural policies.