Assessing Risk for Aggression in Forensic Psychiatric Inpatients: An Examination of Five Measures

摘要

The present study examined risk for inpatient aggression, including treatment-related changes in risk, using a battery of 5 forensic instruments. The relative contributions of different types of risk factors to the assessment of risk for inpatient outcomes were also assessed. The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20(V3), Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability, Violence Risk Scale, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised were rated from archival information sources on a sample of 99 adult forensic inpatients from a Canadian psychiatric hospital. Pretreatment and posttreatment ratings were obtained on all dynamic study measures; associations between risk and change ratings with inpatient aggression were examined. Significant pretreatment-posttreatment differences were found on the HCR-20(V3), START, and VRS; pretreatment scores on these measures each demonstrated predictive accuracy for inpatient aggression (AUC=.68 to.76) whereas the PCL-R and VRAG-R did not. HCR-20(V3), VRS, and START dynamic scores demonstrated incremental predictive validity for inpatient aggression to varying degrees after controlling for static risk factors. Dynamic change scores from these 3 measures also demonstrated incremental concurrent associations with reductions in inpatient aggression after controlling for baseline risk. Several instruments demonstrated predictive validity for inpatient aggression and clinical/dynamic risk and change scores had unique associations with this outcome. The present findings suggest that risk assessments using the HCR-20(V3), START, and VRS may inform the management and reduction of inpatient aggression, as well as assessments of dynamic risk more generally.