Integrated modelling of natural and social systems in land change science

摘要

The need to model the coupled natural-human environment is becoming increasingly important. Climate and global change initiatives now require projections that account for both the biophysical and human dimensions of land change as well as the complexinterdependencies between them. Indeed, an understanding of the interlinked processes of land systems is needed if we are to avoid negative consequences of human activities in the future (Kok et al. 2007). Although several studies have looked at human-nature interactions, fewer have considered the complexity of the coupled land system as a whole (Liu et al. 2007). A holistic consideration of the land system is important as it allows us to take into account feedbacks between different elements of the system (be they social or physical), to identify thresholds and trigger points for change within the system and to identify unexpected or emergent behaviour (Bennett and McGinnis 2008).