A Study on Regional Water Resources Management in the Upper and Middle Parts of the Yellow River Basin Using an Integrative Modeling System Across Natural and Social Sciences

摘要

An integrative hydrological, ecological and economic modeling system at basin scale was developed and used to evaluate the impact of resources management, especially agricultural water resources management, on sustainability of regional water resources in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin. The hydrological model in the integrative modeling system was adapted from Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate water balance in terms of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and river or streamflow. An ecological model and an economic model were integrated into the hydrological platform to compute the ecosystem production of biomass production and yields from different land use types, and the monetary values of crop production and water productivity over irrigated areas, respectively. The integrative modeling system was parameterized and applied to the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin. Careful calibration and validation of the modeling system using data collected within the region of study indicated that the modeling system was capable of simulating the pertinent hydrological, ecological, and economical variables with reasonable accuracy. Four water management scenarios based on water use priorities (business-as-usual scenario, ecosystem scenario, irrigation use efficiency scenario and water use scenario) were then designed and used to analyze the alternative water management pathways. The simulation results indicated that water stress would continue in the study region under both current water use practices and ecosystem scenario in which river flow is fully satisfied. Placing top priority on economic growth, as prescribed in the water use scenario, would result in decrease in water availability and ecosystem degradation in the long run. Improving irrigation use efficiency was shown to be the most favorable approach in securing long-term sustainable water and food supply. The integrative modeling system was shown to be a useful simulation tool in evaluating long-term water resources management strategies at the basin scale, and the information generated from this study are anticipated to be useful in future studies on water resources management in the study area and other arid/semi-arid regions.