A spatial risk analysis of tornado-induced human injuries and fatalities in the USA

摘要

Tornadoes are the most violent atmospheric hazards in the world in terms of human fatalities, injuries, and economic damages. The USA, especially the south and central states, faces numerous tornado disasters. However, there is a lack of good models for reliable tornado risk analysis. This research develops two spatial risk analysis models, base model and location quotient model, for the forty-eight continental US states, using a database for all tornadoes reported during 1950-2012. The models are based on state-level expected losses, standard deviations, and their corresponding state-level percentages, ranges, and ranks of tornado-induced human injuries and fatalities. The models are validated using Pearson's and Spearman's correlations and scatter plots for samples and population of the tornado database. The results show that the models perform well in terms of yielding consistent expected tornado risks and related measures at the state level. The models serve as good alternatives to existing models for spatial tornado risks and ranks in the USA.