Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano: the GRINP project at Mount Cameroon

摘要

To help improve the safety of its population faced with natural disasters, the Cameroon Government, with the support of the French Government, initiated a programme of geological risk analysis and mapping on Mount Cameroon. This active volcano is subject to a variety of hazards: volcanic eruptions, slope instability and earthquakes. Approximately 450,000 people live or work around this volcano, in an area which includes one of Cameroon's main economic resources. An original methodology was used for obtaining the information to reply to questions raised by the authorities. It involves several stages: identifying the different geological hazard components, defining each phenomenon's threat matrix by crossing intensity and frequency indices, mapping the hazards, listing and mapping the exposed elements, analysing their respective values in economic, functional and strategic terms, establishing typologies for the different element-at-risk groups and assessing their vulnerability to the various physical pressures produced by the hazard phenomena, and establishing risk maps for each of the major element-at-risk groups (population, infrastructures, vegetation, atmosphere). At the end of the study we were able (a) to identify the main critical points within the area, and (b) provide quantified orders of magnitude concerning the dimensions of the risk by producing a plausible eruption scenario. The results allowed us to put forward a number of recommendations to the Cameroon Government concerning risk prevention and management. The adopted approach corresponds to a first level of response to the authorities. Later developments should make it possible to refine the quality of the methodology.