Provincial evaluation of vulnerability to geological disaster in China and its influencing factors: a three-stage DEA-based analysis

摘要

China is a country with frequent natural disasters. In order to prevent the losses caused by disaster, this paper plans to make evaluation on vulnerability to geological disaster in 31 provinces in China based on overcoming the disadvantages of traditional data envelopment analysis evaluation methods. The research selected some relevant indexes in China from 2004 to 2010, including the frequency of geological disasters, GDP, population density, personal injury and property loss so as to analyze vulnerability to geological disaster in each province (municipality), and it found that geological vulnerability in China presented an overall pattern of East China Central China West China. In addition, it found from the analysis of the influencing factors of vulnerability that industrial development and scientific and technological advancement could reduce vulnerability to geological disasters significantly, while the growth in per-capita GDP and mean sea level could increase vulnerability to geological disasters to a certain extent. Meanwhile, the research indicated that the investment in the prevention and control of geological disasters in China did not have significant effects on the whole vulnerability to geological disasters.