Black Swans, Fat Tails, and Extreme Values Visit Energy Risk

摘要

Most of us who have been in the energy industry for a while have a story or two of how unexpected events can cause serious problems. Stories like the California energy crisis, the collapse of Enron, or the failure of the First Energy transmission system and the resulting northeast blackout have captured international attention, and there are less-well-known personal stories of how seemingly good positions quickly turn bad.