Ray Kurzweil's evocative "singularity" is that epoch when artificial intelligence first overtakeshuman intelligence.~1 It is intimately associated with nanotechnology as an enabler ofexponentially growing information processing power (as exemplified by Moore's law). Basedon present trends of technology development, albeit difficult to assess when those trends areexponential or even superexponential, Kurzweil estimates that the singularity will occur around2050. This presumably assumes that human intelligence will remain at roughly the same level.Some trends might lead one to surmise that it is actually in decline. If so, would the singularityoccur even sooner, since it should be easier for machines to surpass humans? On the other handit might become progressively more difficult to sustain the required technological developmentof the machines (which remain necessarily dependent on humans until the singularity occurs).The two effects might compensate each other. An early singularity, however, implies that theabsolute level of computational capability achieved might then be too low to enable the post-singularity expansion of intelligence throughout the universe to be realized.
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