We present the results of calculations performed to model the process of lateral manipulation of an oxygen vacancy in the MgO(001) surface using the non-contact atomic force microscope (NC-AFM). The potential energy surfaces for the manipulation as a function of tip position are determined from atomistic modelling of the MgO(001) surface interacting with a Mg terminated MgO tip. These energies are then used to model the dynamical evolution of the system as the tip oscillates and at a finite temperature using a kinetic Monte Carlo method. The manipulation process is strongly dependent on the lateral position of the tip and the system temperature. It is also found that the expectation value of the point at which the vacancy jumps depends on the trajectory of the oscillating cantilever as the surface is approached. The effect of the manipulation on the operation of the NC-AFM is modelled with a virtual dynamic AFM, which explicitly simulates the entire experimental instrumentation and control loops. We show how measurable experimental signals can result from a single controlled atomic scale event and suggest the most favourable conditions for achieving successful atomic scale manipulation experimentally.
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