Urban transport energy demand model for Riyadh: methodology and a preliminary analysis

摘要

ABSTRACT Saudi Arabia intends to reduce GHG emissions by 278 million tons of CO2eq annually by 2030 through Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to UNFCCC. Among many policies, mass transit system and transit-oriented development are being developed with the expectation to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions in Riyadh. To what extent such initiative can reduce energy consumption and GHG emission is an important question. In this paper, a methodology to systematically measure the impact of mass transit and transit-oriented development in Riyadh city on the energy demand has been developed. For Riyadh, a comprehensive travel demand model considering the impact of mass transit and transit-oriented development is still missing. To this end, this paper aims to fill the gap. This methodology considers the state-of-the-art in travel demand analysis and the local context by combining traditional four-step model and activity-based model for modal-shift. This paper describes the methodology and its application for Riyadh by analyzing modal-shift only between car and metro. The results suggest that metro can reduce energy consumption, but the reduction varies with varying accessibility, car, and metro situations. At high urban density and higher car travel cost, we may achieve as high as 13 reduction in fuel demand.