SECOND ESTIMATE OF WORLD SUGAR PRODUCTION 2014/15

摘要

Global sugar prices continued to drop in recent months as sugar supplies are ample. Even crushing in India is now running ahead of last year despite millers' threats over the summer to suspend operations in the current season if their financial demands are not met.The soon-to-be-concluded beet campaigns in Europe come alongwith a substantial rise in output while the recently-launched cane crushing seasons in the northern hemisphere will also bring fresh supplies to the market in coming months. Last but not least, sugar output in CS Brazil in 2014/15 was slightly higher than assumed despite a sharp drought-induced drop. All in all, this means that the global sugar market will remain well supplied in the foreseeable future. Making matters worse, the likely emergence of an El Nino could bring ample rainfall to Brazil's southern growing areas in coming months, which may lead to a recovery of cane yields in the 2015/16crushing season that is due to start in April. If that should be coupled with a redirection of cane to sugar production next season due to the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real and collapsing crude oil values even more sugar could enter the pipeline in 2015/16. Thus, it is difficult to make a case for a major turnaround of the sugar market before the outlook for northern hemisphere sugar production in 2015/16 becomes clearer. That may be deep into 2015.