Quantitative precipitation forecast for the Brahmaputra and the Barak basins by synoptic analogue technique

摘要

The paper formulates a model for issuing quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) by Synoptic Analogue Technique (SAT) for the Brahmaputra basin and the Barak basin of North East Region of India (NER) comprising fifteen sub-catchments of the river Brahmaputra and a single catchment of the river Barak. Ten years data (2001-2010) during the flood season (15 May to 15 October) have been used in developing the model. The results so obtained were verified with the realised Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) for the corresponding synoptic situations during the flood season 2011 for each sub-catchment. Based on 2 x 2 contingency table, different skill scores were calculated and found that the model so developed can produce QPF with reasonable higher accuracy and has good forecast skill.