Inference from limited data: A response to Lonergan

摘要

Lonergan (2012) criticized the analysis of Gerrodette and Rojas-Bracho (2011), who estimated the success of three possible protected areas for the critically endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus) proposed under the Action Plan for the Conservation of Vaquitas. We ?tted a Bayesian population model to the limited data available for this rare cetacean. Lonergan asserted that the data were not suf?cient to reach the conclusions that we reported. In one sense, Lonergan’s concern is understandable: it is amazing that useful conclusions can be drawn from such sparse data. But that was not due to unreasonable assumptions or model structure as Lonergan claimed. Rather, our analysis demonstrated the remarkable power of modern statistical methods.