Latest indications continue to point to a significant increase in global cereal production in 2004, to 1 956 million tonnes, 3,7 percent up from last year. However, this level of output would not meet expected utilization so another drawdown in global cereal stocks is forecast in the new 2004/05 marketing year. While the bulk of the drawdown will be in China, as in the past four years, cereal stocks held by the major exporters are also expected to remain at relatively low levels. Therefore, the buffer against unexpected shocks in cereal supply or demand has further narrowed and the possibility of more volatile prices in 2004/05 should not be ruled out.
展开▼
