Resources and Global Food Prospects: Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030

摘要

The report explores the circumstances under which the global agricultural system may be able to satisfy the growing demands for some major foods through to 2030. It does this under the constraint that such achievement should be at 'acceptable' economic and environmental costs. The analysis proceeds primarily through reviewing the quantity and quality of resources that can be mobilized -- particularly those resources relating to land, water, plant genetic resources, climate, and knowledge about agricultural production systems that is embedded in people, institutions and technology. In this sense, the scope of the report is limited because there is little consideration of macroeconomic policy, the role of changing energy prices and availabilities, and the specific contributions of labor and conventional capital items. Whilst broad assumptions are made about the trading environment, the specific flows of world trade in major agricultural commodities are given little explicit attention.