Application of artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system models to0 short-term streamflow forecasting

摘要

The present article aims to forecast streamflow by using artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). For this purpose, the daily streamflow time series of two hydrometry stations of Hajighoshan and Tamar on Gorgan River are used for two periods of 1983-2007 and 1974– 2007, respectively. Root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are employed to evaluate the performance of the ANNs, ANFIS, and ARMA models for forecasting streamflow (1 day ahead). Comparison of the results reveals that the ANFIS model outperforms the ARMA model. Based on the results of validation stage, for the forecasting 1 day ahead streamflow, ANN with RMSE = 0.028 m~3/s and R = 0.59 for the Hajighoshan station and RMSE = 0.013 m~3/s and R = 0.44 for the Tamar station were found to be superior to the ANFIS with RMSE = 1.98 m~3/s and R = 0.42 for the Hajighoshan station and RMSE = 2.18 m~3/s and R = 022 for the Tamar station. In addition, for 2 day and 3 day ahead streamflow forecasts, the ANN models show superiority in the accuracy of forecasting streamflow compared with the ANFIS models.