Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach in modeling renewable electricity generation forecasting

摘要

Renewable energy sources are developing rapidly worldwide because they are unlimited and permanent, available in every country and also eliminate foreign dependency. In this respect, accurate renewable electricity generation (REG) forecasting is essential in a country's energy planning in relation to its development. In this study, two different data-driven methods such as adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with fuzzy c-means (FCM) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network were applied to perform one-day ahead short-term REG forecasting. In addition, short-term hydropower electricity generation (HEG), geothermal electricity generation (GEG), and bioenergy electricity generation (BEG) forecasting were also made using these methods. The correlation coefficient (R), root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as evaluation criteria. The values predicted by the ANFIS-FCM and LSTM models were compared with the actual values by evaluating their errors. According to the test results obtained in terms of MAPE evaluation criteria, the best estimation model was obtained for GEG. The lowest MAPE values were found to be 7.20%, 7.46%, 1.63%, and 2.46% for REG, HEG, GEG, and BEG estimates, respectively. The results showed that both ANFIS and LSTM models presented satisfying performances in daily REG prediction, and the ANFIS and LSTM models gave almost identical results.