HERE IS another look at what has been happening to freight rates, together with an attempt to see what FFAs are telling us about the future direction. We start by looking at Capesizes. When we look at how the Forward Curve has been moving over recent weeks (see graph above) we see that the world has not been changing much. The collective market opinion has seen rates holding within a $1 - $2 range either side of $10/mt, and that view has held for the last three weeks. Whilst spot numbers and near-month FFAs have eased off slightly, there is still no sign of any real change in market sentiment - it really is 'steady as she goes'. Global oversupply persists, but some relief possible Interest in fresh urea positions has been emerging from numerous Latin American buyers this week, likely sensing that FSU prices may once again have bottomed out, at least in the short term. Purchases, negotiations, and pending inquiries include the additional 20-25,000 mt Pronamex purchase for Mexico alongside combination parcels covered by Incofe for Central America that include 15,000 mt Baltic urea and 6,000 mt prills from Venezuela. The short-dated Abocol tender for 20,000 mt urea for Peru closed today with offers in the low-to-mid $290s/mt CFR, and interest for a similar parcel is expressed by Molinos, also for Peru. Indicative of a slightly firmer market, Ciamsa had raised bids late on March 25 for the 10-12.000mt part cargo under negotiation for Buenaventura from $295/mt CFR by about $10/mt, and is believed to have concluded. Koch has booked a cargo of granular urea from Fertinitro this week at $275.50/mt FOB, likely heading for Mexico. Reflecting the above, indications implying that further cuts
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