2H'11: Uncertainty prevails but modest growth remains likely

摘要

As we enter the second half of 2011, the near-term outlook is not clear. Arguments can be made for either a double-dip recession or a 2H'11 upturn. We believe the later, but uncertainty still exists. Per Chart 1 we are currently at the "zero growth" portion of the business cycle. The global economy and electronic equipment are still expanding at modest single digit rates, but electronic component and material growth rates are near "break even." Converting Chart 1 to real data, Chart 2 shows three-month (3/12) growth rates for global electronic equipment, printed circuit board and semiconductor shipments compared to the global purchasing managers' index (PMI) as a leading indicator. The PMI suggests that "things will get worse before they get better"-at least short term.