High resolved simulation of climate change impact on greenhouse energy consumption in Germany.

摘要

Increasing energy costs are a main concern in greenhouse plant production. At this it is uncertain, how the expected climate change will affect this problem regionally. Therefore the future greenhouse energy consumption was simulated with the help of climate realizations of high spatio-temporal resolution from the regional climate model REMO (UBA-Runs), based on the IPGC climate projections A1B, A2 and B1. Simulations were conducted for each hour of the periods 2001-2015 and 2031-45 on a 100 km x 100 km grid for Germany, as well as continuously for each hour from 1951 to 2099 on a 10 km x 10 km grid for the federal department Lower Saxony (Germany), employing the energy simulation system HORTEX. Furthermore the influence of a consistent 2-d bias correction on the projected signal was tested in a case study (53 degrees 03'N, 08 degrees 48'E). The results consistently show a strong mean decrease of greenhouse energy consumption for all scenarios by 2038 and up to 45% for the area of Germany, diverging regionally. Higher absolute reductions in energy consumption can be expected in warm greenhouses, while low temperature set points result in higher relative energy consumption reduction. The latter might influence future utilisation concepts.