An approach for examining the effects of preferential uncertainty on the contents of forest management plan at stand and holding level

摘要

A proper forest planning process includes the assessment of the decision-makers' preferences concerning the future forest use. For some owners, it may be a difficult task to express their preferences exactly and in the form that is required for planning calculations. This study presents a new kind of approach for analyzing the effects of preferential uncertainty. The approach consists of examination of the differences in the actual decision variables in forest planning, i.e. selected treatments for stands between holding-level forest plans. In example calculations, the preferential uncertainty was examined from three different viewpoints: the uncertainty in the weights of the objective variables; the uncertainty in the partial utility function; and the combination of these two uncertainty sources. One thousand preference realizations were generated for each of these uncertainty sources. More than one treatment schedules are proposed for stands that are affected by preferential uncertainty. These stands were detected from among the resulting set of 1,000 forest plans. With this done, two potential decision-making strategies, an adaptive behavior strategy and a threshold proportion strategy, were applied as guides in decision-making for stands, which have more than one treatment alternative selected in the produced optimal forest plans. The adaptive behavior technique required that the forest owner select one treatment alternative for at least one stand that has more than one proposed treatment alternative. The treatment alternatives having frequencies exceeding the given threshold frequency were all accepted simultaneously in the threshold strategy. The main benefit of the approach is to present the effects of uncertainties in a way that can be easily understood by the actual decision-makers. It is a promising tool for practical decision-making situations because at least Finnish non-industrial private forest owners quite often focus on making stand-level forest management decisions. It is also suitable for examinations of other uncertainty sources such as timber prices or inventory data.