Analysis of Energy Saving and Environmental Characteristics of Electric Vehicles in Regionally Disaggregated World Energy Model

摘要

This paper investigates the impact of an extensive introduction of electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) into the global energy system by 2050. The significant growth of automobile ownership in emerging countries is likely to increase world oil demand and the associated carbon dioxide emissions. In order to address these energy, security, and environmental concerns, the deployment of clean energy vehicles, such as EV and PHEV, is expected to play a crucial role due to their high fuel efficiency. Consequently, we develop both a global energy system model and a world vehicle penetration model, which can explicitly analyze the impact of EV introduction into the seasonal daily electric load curve, with consideration of the specific electricity charging profile through 2050. The simulation results confirm that EV deployment contributes to energy conservation, because oil demand reduction outstrips the growth in electricity demand and the associated fuel input into the power generation mix. Concerning carbon dioxide abatement, the magnitude of the impact relies on the carbon intensity of the power generation mix. If the intensity is low enough to guarantee a carbon mitigation effect due to EV fuel saving, emissions reduction is well assured. It should be noted, however, that in regions with high carbon intensity in the power generation mix, carbon emissions per mileage of EVs is almost equivalent to that of efficient gasoline vehicles such as hybrid vehicles, and the figure for PHEV is slightly higher than for hybrid vehicles.