Investigating the energy transition to a coal free residential sector in Kazakhstan using a regionally disaggregated energy systems model

摘要

Problems with unsustainable use of energy by households and lack of access to energy infrastructure require effective actions from the policy makers. Energy system models can usefully analyze future residential sector energy pathways "within" the full energy system. However, few energy system models have been developed with disaggregated sub-national regional detail, building type and urban/rural divisions. This paper addresses this key gap. Disaggregating the residential sector by building categories allows improved representation of the range of energy transition options across building categories. We incorporated a novel detailed building stock module into a 16-region TIMES energy systems model for Kazakhstan, using statistical data on the housing stock and building energy audit reports. We then explore the introduction of a coal ban and use scenario analysis to identify the most cost-effective heating technologies for the different regions and different building types. Implications of the residential sector policies to the supply side energy infrastructure were also quantified.