If China is a critical variable for your forecast, make one at your own risk. The World Steel Association has drastically cut its estimates for finished steel demand in 2015 and 2016. In April, its Short Range Outlook forecast steel demand to grow by 0,5% in 2015 and then recover to 1.4% in 2016. But its October edition says steel demand could actually decline by 1.7% in 2015 and evert then grow by only 0.7% in 2016. In absolute terms, that is 31 million tonnes of steel cut from its ear-lier demand estimate.
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