Sources of Uncertainties in a Range of ETo Projections under Climate Change

摘要

Various climatic variables, for instance wind speed or precipitation, generated through Regional Climate Models (RCMs), nested in the same General Circulation Model (GCM), have been shown to have different levels of uncertainties. With this experience, the possibility to choose optional ETo estimation methods may provide analyses of IPCC scenarios with more accurate estimations of uncertainties. In addition, a question arises about the relative contribution to projection uncertainties of any ETo calculation method within the context of the entire input data for RCM and IPCC scenarios. This work quantifies the effect on projection uncertainties of three methods currently used to estimate ETo in areas with Mediterranean-type climate.