Future scenarios of the technological knowledge generation by multinational enterprises

摘要

The objective of this paper is to analyse trends and possible future changes in the way of knowledge production by Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) and the relative role of MNE in the European Research Area. Various scenarios of the future of knowledge production by multinationals will be developed. The time horizon of the scenario will be to 2020. R&D is hereby considered as one core element. Four consistent scenarios are built. In The Long Boom scenario, the investment in technological knowledge is dramatic and highly globally distributed. In the Ups and Downs scenario, the overall investment in innovation stagnates and correlates with the economic up-and-down swings. The Handpicked Innovation scenario includes that MNE generate innovation only by chance and focuses on internal knowledge generation. In the Zero Growth scenario, MNEs restrain competition and technological knowledge becomes less and less important to differentiate in competition.