The diffusion pattern of non-cash payments: evidence from China

摘要

Exploiting an original dataset of non-cash payments during the period between 1996 and 2005, this study analyses the diffusion patterns of non-cash payments in China. Based on both exponential and Gompertz curves, the point of sale (POS) terminal has shown a higher diffusion rate than that of automatic teller machines (ATMs). This result is also robust when a time trend is interacted with rivals' precedence, network effects and market concentration. The diffusion rates of both ATM and POS terminals have accelerated after 2002, when UnionPay was established in China. The diffusion rate of ATMs is found to be mainly driven by rivals' adoption of them. Market concentration boosts the diffusion of POS terminals. In spite of the rising number of POS terminals and merchants, the volume of POS transactions is low. The diffusion rate of POS is, however, negatively affected by interchange fees.