Development of an algorithm for automated cause-consequence diagram construction

摘要

Cause-consequence analysis is one of the best tools available for a comprehensive reliability study. The Cause-Consequence Diagram (CCD) method, like fault tree analysis, represents the failure logic of the system, but in addition the CCD also identifies the complete set of consequences following a given initiating event. Despite the clear appeal of this approach to engineers the CCD method has its drawbacks. If the diagram construction and its analysis could be automated it would increase the usefulness of the method. This paper describes the development of an algorithm for automated CCD construction. The algorithm builds on methods developed previously for fault tree construction, such as topology diagrams, component decision tables, etc. Once constructed, the diagram can be quantified to give exact system reliability. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach the algorithm is applied to a simple example.