Trends in the evolution of life, brains and intelligence

摘要

The f_I term of Drake’s equation – the fraction of life-bearing planets on which ‘intelligent’ life evolved – has been the subject of much debate in the last few decades. Several leading evolutionary biologists have endorsed the thesis that the probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is vanishingly small. A discussion of this thesis is proposed here that focuses on a key issue in the debate: the existence of evolutionary trends, often presented as trends towards higher complexity, and their possible significance. The present state of knowledge on trends is reviewed. Measurements of quantitative variables that describe important features of the evolution of living organisms – their hierarchical organization, size and biodiversity – and of brains – their overall size, the number and size of their components – in relation to their cognitive abilities, provide reliable evidence of the reality and generality of evolutionary trends. Properties of trends are inferred and frequent misinterpretations (including an excessive stress on mere ‘complexity’) that prevent the objective assessment of trends are considered. Finally, several arguments against the repeatability of evolution to intelligence are discussed. It is concluded that no compelling argument exists for an exceedingly small probability f_I. More research is needed before this wide-ranging negative conclusion is accepted.