ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR WASTE REPOSITORY OPTIONS USING THE ER APPROACH

摘要

Two technically feasible nuclear waste repository options have been identified in Belgium. To select one for implementation, a study was carried out to compare the public perception and acceptance of the two options. In this paper, it is described how the study and selection process can be supported, and how the diversity and uncertainty in public opinions can be rationally modeled and analyzed by applying the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. The ER approach is a recent advancement for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). By using belief decision matrices to model MCDA problems, both qualitative and quantitative information with various types of uncertainties can be taken into account in decision-making processes in a unified and logical format. Following an illustration of the ER approach and an outline of the selection problem, it is described how the ER approach can be used to model the problem, aggregate information, and facilitate sensitivity analysis. Some suggestions are made for future assessment studies.