Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

摘要

Projecting the future distribution of permafrost under different climate change scenarios is essential, especially for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The altitude-response model is used to estimate future permafrost changes on the QTP for the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The simulation results show the following: (1) from now until 2070, the permafrost will experience different degrees of significant degradation under the four RCP scenarios. This will affect 25.68%, 40.54%, 45.95%, and 62.84% of the current permafrost area, respectively. (2) The permafrost changes occur at different rates during the periods 2030-2050 and 2050-2070 for the four different RCPs. (1) In RCP2.6, the permafrost area decreases a little during the period 2030-2050 but shows a small increase from 2050 to 2070. (2) In RCP4.5, the rate of permafrost loss during the period 2030-2050 (about 12.73%) is higher than between 2050 and 2070 (about 8.33%). (3) In RCP6.0, the permafrost loss rate for the period 2030-2050 (about 16.52%) is similar to that for 2050-2070 (about 16.67%). (4) In RCP8.5, there is a significant discrepancy in the rate of permafrost decrease for the periods 2030-2050 and 2050-2070: the rate is only about 3.70% for the first period but about 29.49% during the second.