Projected changes in European extreme precipitation indices on the basis of global and regional climate model ensembles

摘要

As both global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models have their own advantages, the most comprehensive picture of changes in precipitation and their uncertainty ranges can be achieved by comparing the results of both model categories. Here we have evaluated seasonal changes in indices representing excess or scarcity of precipitation in Europe on the basis of simulations performed with ten GCMs with a reasonably high spatial resolution and, for comparison, with five RCMs driven by one and the same GCM. We found no fundamental differences between the GCMs and RCMs in the projected tendency towards a more extreme precipitation climate, characterized by increases both in indices representing wet conditions and also dry conditions. Most evidently in the Northern European summer and Southern European winter, the differences in the responses of the various indices between the present sets of GCMs and RCMs could be explained by the dissimilar changes in seasonal mean precipitation. The scatter among the projected changes was in general much smaller for the RCM than for the GCM simulations. The projections of individual RCMs mainly fall within the interval determined by the GCM projections. This indicates that the GCM ensemble yielded more comprehensive estimates for the uncertainty ranges in the extreme precipitation indices.