Trends in temperature indices over Serbia: relationships to large-scale circulation patterns

摘要

In this work, the trends of six climate indices based on the daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1949-2009 at 15 stations distributed across Serbia were analysed. The results showed seasonal changes in the minimum and maximum temperature extremes. An analysis of the extreme temperature indices suggested that the Serbian climate generally tended to become warmer in the last 61 years. The most significant temperature trends were revealed for the summer season. The influence of large-scale variables on the temperature was examined by means of the empirical orthogonal function and correlation. It was found that the East Atlantic pattern dominated during the winter, spring and summer, while the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern governed during the autumn. In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation dominated the Serbian extreme temperature variability during the winter.